*For this summer, I’ve decided to open up another little mini-series on this blog called Markov Musings about the mathematical analysis of Markov chains, jumping off from my previous post on the subject. My main goal in writing this is to learn the material for myself, and I hope that what I produce is useful to others. My main resources are:*

*The book***Markov Chains and Mixing Times**by Levin, Peres, and Wilmer;*Lecture notes and videos by theoretical computer scientists Sinclair, Oveis Gharan, O’Donnell, and Schulman; and**These notes by Rob Webber, for a complementary perspective from a scientific computing point of view.*

*Be warned, these posts will be more mathematical in nature than most of the material on my blog.*

In my previous post on Markov chains, we discussed the fundamental theorem of Markov chains. Here is a slightly stronger version:

Theorem (fundamental Theorem of Markov chains).A primitive Markov chain on a finite state space has a stationary distribution . When initialized from any starting distribution , the distributions of the chain at times converge at an exponential rate to .

My goal in this post will be to provide a proof of this fact using the method of *couplings*, adapted from the notes of Sinclair and Oveis Gharan. I like this proof because it feels very *probabilistic* (as opposed to more *linear algebraic* proofs of the fundamental theorem).

Here, and throughout, we say a matrix or vector is if all of its entries are strictly positive. Recall that a Markov chain with transition matrix is *primitive* if there exists for which . For this post, all Markov chains will have state space .

## Total Variation Distance

In order to quantify the rate of Markov chain convergence, we need a way of quantifying the closeness of two probability distributions. This motivates the following definition:

Definition (total variation distance).Thetotal variation distancebetween probability distributions and on is the maximum difference between the probability of an event under and under :

The total variation distance is always between and . It is zero only when and are the same distribution. It is one only when and have disjoint supports—that is, there is no for which .

The total variation distance is a very strict way of comparing two probability distributions. Sinclair’s notes provide a vivid example. Suppose that denotes the uniform distribution on all possible ways of shuffling a deck of cards, and denotes the uniform distribution on all ways of shuffling cards with the ace of spades at the top. Then the total variation distance between and is . Thus, despite these distributions seeming quite similar to us, the total variation distance between and is almost as far apart as possible. There are a number of alternative ways of measuring the closeness of probability distributions, some of which are less severe.

## Couplings

Given a probability distribution , it can be helpful to work with *random variables* drawn from . Say a random variable is drawn from the distribution , written , if

To understand the total variation distance more, we shall need the following definition:

Definition (coupling).Given probability distributions on , acouplingis a distribution on such that if a pair of random variables is drawn from , then and . Denote the set of all couplings of and as .

More succinctly, a coupling of and is a joint distribution with marginals and .

Couplings are related to total variation distance by the following lemma:^{1}A proof is provided in Lemma 4.2 of Oveis Gharan’s notes. The coupling lemma holds in the full generality of probability measures on general spaces, and can be viewed as a special case of the Monge–Kantorovich duality principle of optimal transport. See Theorem 4.13 and Example 4.14 in van Handel’s notes for details.

Lemma (coupling lemma).Let and be distributions on . ThenHere, represents the probability for variables drawn from joint distribution .

To see a simple example, suppose . Then the coupling lemma tells us that there is a coupling of and itself such that . Indeed, such a coupling can be obtained by drawing and setting . This defines a joint distribution under which with 100% probability.

To unpack the coupling lemma a little more, it really contains two statements:

- For any coupling between and and ,
- There exists a coupling between and such that when , then

We will need both of these statements in our proof of the fundamental theorem.

## Proof of the Fundamental Theorem

With these ingredients in place, we are now ready to prove the fundamental theorem of Markov chains. First, we will assume there exists a stationary distribution . We will provide a proof of this fact at the end of this post.

Suppose we initialize the chain in distribution , and let denote the distributions of the chain at times . Our goal will be to establish that as at an exponential rate.

### Distance to Stationarity is Non-Increasing

First, let us establish the more modest claim that is non-increasing

(1)

We shall do this by means of the coupling lemma.Consider two versions of the chain and , one initialized in and the other initialized with . We now apply the coupling lemma to the states and of the chains at time . By the coupling lemma, there exists a coupling of and such that

Now construct a coupling of and according to the following rules:

- If , then draw according to the transition matrix and set .
- If , then run the two chains independently to generate and .

By the way we’ve designed the coupling,

Thus, by the coupling lemma,

We have established that the distance to stationarity is non-increasing.

This proof already contains the essence of the argument as to why Markov chains mix. We run two versions of the Markov chain, one initialized in an arbitrary distribution and the other initialized in the stationary distribution . While the states of the two chains are different, we run the chains independently. When the chains meet, we continue moving the chains together in synchrony. After running for long enough, the two chains are likely to meet, implying the chain has mixed.

### The All-to-All Case

As another stepping stone to the complete proof, let us prove the fundamental theorem in the special case where there is a strictly positive probability of moving between any two states, i.e., assuming .

Consider the two chains and coupled as in the previous section. We compute the probability more carefully. Write it as

(2)

To compute , break into cases for all possible values for to take

We now are in a place to

*lower bound*this probability. Let be the minimum probability of moving between any two states

The probability of moving from, to is at least . We conclude the lower bound

Substituting back in (2), we obtain

By the coupling lemma, we conclude

By iteration, we conclude

The chain converges to stationarity at an exponential rate, as claimed.

### The General Case

We’ve now proved the fundamental theorem in the special case when . Fortunately, together with our earlier observation that distance to stationarity is non-increasing, we can upgrade this proof into a proof for the general case.

We have assumed the Markov chain is primitive, so there exists a time for which . Construct an auxilliary Markov chain such that one step of the auxilliary chain consists of running steps of the original chain:

By the all-to-all case, we know that converges to stationarity at an exponential rate. Thus, since the distribution of is , we have

where . Thus, since distance to stationarity is non-increasing, we have

Thus, for any starting distribution , the distribution of the chain at time converges to stationarity at an exponential rate as , proving the fundamental theorem.

## Mixing Time

We’ve proven a quantiative version of the fundamental theorem of Markov chains, showing that the total variation distance to stationarity decreases exponentially as a function of time. For algorithmic applications of Markov chains, we also care about the *rate* of convergence, as it dictates how long we need to run the chain. To this end, we define the *mixing time*:

Definition (mixing time).Themixing timeof a Markov chain is the number of steps required for the distance to stationarity to be at most when started from a worst-case distribution:

The mixing time controls the rate of convergence for a Markov chain:

Theorem (mixing time as a convergence rate).For any starting distribution,

In particular, for to be within total variation distance of , we only need to run the chain for steps:

Corollary (time to mix to -stationarity).If , then .

These results can be proven using very similar techniques to the proof of the fundamental theorem from above. See Sinclair’s notes for more details.

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