{"id":1610,"date":"2023-08-16T03:49:04","date_gmt":"2023-08-16T03:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/?p=1610"},"modified":"2023-11-24T02:53:52","modified_gmt":"2023-11-24T02:53:52","slug":"markov-musings-4-should-you-be-lazy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/16\/markov-musings-4-should-you-be-lazy\/","title":{"rendered":"Markov Musings 4: Should You Be Lazy?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This post is part of a series, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/category\/markov-musings\/\">Markov Musings<\/a><\/strong>, about the mathematical analysis of Markov chains. See here for the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/29\/markov-musings-1-the-fundamental-theorem\/\">first post<\/a> in the series.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>In the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/13\/markov-musings-3-spectral-theory\/\">previous post<\/a>, we proved the following convergence results for a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Detailed_balance#Reversible_Markov_chains\">reversible<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Markov_chain\">Markov chain<\/a><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 34px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ed65d0043f7a436b0f42a6d096d34e9f_l3.png\" height=\"34\" width=\"373\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#99;&#104;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#120;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#32;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#123;&#50;&#110;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#104;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>Here, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a33285f2152f32803f17072b47f3b8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"26\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> denotes the distribution of the chain at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> denotes the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Markov_chain#Stationary_distribution_relation_to_eigenvectors_and_simplices\">stationary distribution<\/a>, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-40f04a68b4582521a5e0164094ec3fac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#99;&#104;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#40;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"61\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> denotes the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cab82b421b5cd3edc8c05175f22e255b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#99;&#104;&#105;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/F-divergence#Common_examples_of_f-divergences\">divergence<\/a>, and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-913912ceb6bfe66bfb50a5137b5d7b00_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#50;&#32;&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#32;&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#45;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"228\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> denote the decreasingly ordered <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Eigenvalues_and_eigenvectors\">eigenvalues<\/a> of the Markov transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. To bound the rate of convergence to stationarity, we therefore must <em>upper bound<\/em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4b7c0387fcb526b36b4d160a120fe9a1_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"17\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> and <em>lower bound<\/em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-265fab8dd42cba0fa147ea3d7b91de28_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"22\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having to prove separate bounds for two eigenvalues is inconvenient. In the next post, we will develop tools to bound <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4b7c0387fcb526b36b4d160a120fe9a1_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"17\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. But what should we do about <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2fcfe7a86248b1335319cf5b7df653bd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#109;&#63;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"31\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> Fortunately, there is a trick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It Pays to be Lazy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Call a Markov chain <em>lazy<\/em> if, at every step, the chain has at least a 50% chance of staying put. That is, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2cf51c515b42e681c3f222f5b5c38dd5_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#49;&#47;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"71\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> for every <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any Markov chain can be made into a lazy chain. At every step of the chain, flip a coin. If the coin is heads, perform a step of the Markov chain as normal, drawing the next step randomly according to the transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. If the coin comes up tails, do nothing and stay put.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Algebraically, the lazy chain described in the previous paragraph corresponds to replacing the original transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> with the lazy transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d9bf3ad8cd09749cbd038120f0e21f69_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#111;&#108;&#111;&#110;&#101;&#113;&#113;&#32;&#40;&#73;&#43;&#80;&#41;&#47;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"142\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>, where <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-06a46a64abb2fc8a9d51631fef84fe19_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#73;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> denotes the identity matrix. It is easy to see that the stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is also a stationary distribution for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7b5b3c194c8453a8d59713cc7fa28984_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"38\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>:<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 36px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d33d9a3024c655134a56d89b119cf39c_l3.png\" height=\"36\" width=\"365\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#50;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#50;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#73;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#50;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#50;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>The eigenvalues of the lazy transition matrix are <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 36px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ac2938aa6854a708a394222649af1e66_l3.png\" height=\"36\" width=\"113\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#43;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#123;&#50;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>In particular, since all of the original eigenvalues <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2d04a02ef3c4041d8bb119d0c1fbeca5_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"15\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> are <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-04f978e792f6e9a251dbde0cce3801d2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#45;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"40\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>, all of the eigenvalues of the lazy chain are <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5c4f5ae9ddd4ec503cb68edc13db14ba_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"27\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. Thus, the smallest eigenvalue of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7b5b3c194c8453a8d59713cc7fa28984_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"38\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is always <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5c4f5ae9ddd4ec503cb68edc13db14ba_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"27\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> and thus, for the lazy chain, the convergence is controlled only by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cc7d64d17c3908ce196d7131a7cebf46_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#50;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"34\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>:<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 36px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-861a132f08a1c2b208d61eb004ed58bb_l3.png\" height=\"36\" width=\"305\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#99;&#104;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#50;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#123;&#50;&#110;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#104;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#100;&#108;&#101;&#124;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>Since it can be easier to establish bounds on the second eigenvalue than on both the second and last, it can be convenient\u2014for theoretical purposes especially\u2014to work with lazy chains, using the construction above to enforce laziness if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Should You be Lazy?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve seen one <em>theoretical<\/em> argument for why it pays to use lazy Markov chains. But should we use lazy Markov chains <em>in practice<\/em>? The answer ultimately depends on how we want to <em>use<\/em> the Markov chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are two very different ways we could use a Markov chain:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>One-shot sampling.<\/strong> Run the Markov chain once for a fixed number of steps <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, and use the result as an approximate sample from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For this use case, it is important that the output is genuinely a sample from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, and the possibility of large negative eigenvalues can significantly degrade the convergence. In the extreme case where <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5bf4edce1009152f2284be30e87eaff0_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#45;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is an eigenvalue, the chain will fail to converge to stationarity at all. For this application, the lazy approach may make sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Averaging.<\/strong> Another way we can use a Markov chain is to compute the average of value of a function <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0793029ff5365c08494b5e059840049b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;&#40;&#120;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"34\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> over a random variable <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b6b47dfc7d2916998858e3cd294d4d6e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"45\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> drawn from the stationary distribution: <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-6399c58f0e1b13f3cffac439c145d3b4_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"186\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#95;&#123;&#120;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>To do this, we approximate this expectation by the time average <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f2c40a6f0023f1534926a4b53c6c39_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> of the value of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c23e757cb6bd08fe194e942085387dcd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"10\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> over the first <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> values <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ef65468d5de7c3ec50ad4e8513434d1b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#78;&#45;&#49;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"122\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> of the chain<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 52px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-591e83a4f5551f6826ddffb5de03ce72_l3.png\" height=\"52\" width=\"149\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#123;&#78;&#125;&#92;&#99;&#111;&#108;&#111;&#110;&#101;&#113;&#113;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#78;&#125;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#61;&#48;&#125;&#94;&#123;&#78;&#45;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As we shall see, this averaging process converges at an (asymptotically) slower rate for the lazy chain than the original chain. Therefore, for this application, we should typically just run the chain as-is, and not worry about making it lazy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Case Against Laziness<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To see why being lazy hurts us for the averaging problem, we will use the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Markov_chain_central_limit_theorem\">Markov chain central limit theorem<\/a>. As with <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Central_limit_theorem#Dependent_processes\">many random averaging processes<\/a>, we expect that in the limit of a large number of steps <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, the Markov chain average <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 52px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-615239005583b665db04e6a578abec08_l3.png\" height=\"52\" width=\"141\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#78;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#78;&#125;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#61;&#48;&#125;&#94;&#123;&#78;&#45;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>will become approximately normally distributed. This is the content of the Markov chain central limit theorem (CLT):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><strong>Informal theorem (Markov chain central limit theorem).<\/strong> Let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e6632dc87d636e1ce65ab3aca652a412_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"97\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> denote the states of a Markov chain initialized in the stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-842c51ec07365e5d79289443a987bad8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. For a large number <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> of steps, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f2c40a6f0023f1534926a4b53c6c39_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is approximately normally distributed with mean <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e4b2ff50078922c10c1f0a32237a19d6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#95;&#123;&#120;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"82\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> and variance <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-72885ae388ce31858e4263727c05846b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;&#47;&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"42\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> where <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (1) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b209aff956ed442df57ac781c0376a2f_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"327\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#86;&#97;&#114;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#50;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#102;&#116;&#121;&#32;&#92;&#67;&#111;&#118;&#40;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#44;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#41;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The Markov chain CLT shows that the variance of the Markov chain average <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f2c40a6f0023f1534926a4b53c6c39_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> depends not only on the variance of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c23e757cb6bd08fe194e942085387dcd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"10\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> in the stationary distribution, but also the <em><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Covariance\">covariance<\/a><\/em> between <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-aa763a8ddeeb301436dc19d2596f2bd7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"41\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> and later values <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-867f7d1b4e6776d3c4e95afb4eac6a4d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"43\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. The faster the covariance decreases, the smaller <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> will be and thus the smaller the error for the Markov chain average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More formally, the Markov chain CLT is given by the following result:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><strong>Theorem (Markov chain central limit theorem).<\/strong> As <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d09274284650a15b9628a7e1b1635f68_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#102;&#116;&#121;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"61\" style=\"vertical-align: -1px;\"\/>, <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 47px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f5818a8980215e63da79048168aa8b79_l3.png\" height=\"47\" width=\"128\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#78;&#32;&#45;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#95;&#123;&#120;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#93;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#115;&#113;&#114;&#116;&#123;&#78;&#125;&#125;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>converges in distribution to a normal random variable with mean zero and variance <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, as defined in (1).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>To compare the lazy and non-lazy chains, let&#8217;s compute the variance parameter <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> in the Markov chain CLT in terms of the eigenvalues of the chain. For the remainder of this post, let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0797b10b382ddf38372d744ad92b21a7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;&#32;&#58;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#109;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#108;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"147\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> be any function.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step 1: Spectral Decomposition<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Recall that, by the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Spectral_theorem#Hermitian_maps_and_Hermitian_matrices\">spectral theorem<\/a>, the transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> has eigenvectors <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-64cbdef181956f96158b4c97c467082f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"110\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> that are <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Orthonormality\">orthonormal<\/a> in the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-inner product<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 54px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-139934705e34440f3c903f0e089f580b_l3.png\" height=\"54\" width=\"324\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#44;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#95;&#123;&#120;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#91;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#98;&#101;&#103;&#105;&#110;&#123;&#99;&#97;&#115;&#101;&#115;&#125;&#49;&#44;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#92;&#48;&#44;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#110;&#101;&#32;&#106;&#46;&#92;&#101;&#110;&#100;&#123;&#99;&#97;&#115;&#101;&#115;&#125;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>As in the previous post, we think of vectors such as <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5d08068d4bd802d617fd93b4cef9232a_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#108;&#94;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"64\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> as defining a <em>function<\/em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3bca043a34313be227210f85535a7bc6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#58;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#109;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#108;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"154\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Thus, we can expand the function <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c23e757cb6bd08fe194e942085387dcd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"10\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> using the eigenvectors<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 16px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (2) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c7d7e27ce6d2d6d0e3c721a120eef469_l3.png\" height=\"16\" width=\"182\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#102;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#109;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>The first eigenvector <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c86dc5efc4621599bd3e11866d859306_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#102;&#123;&#49;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is the vector of all ones (or, equivalently, the function that outputs <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-27e3598fd2d4f0491067f1afaced92e9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"7\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> for every output).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step 2: Applying the Transition Matrix to a Function<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is defined so that if the Markov chain has probability distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-012f256d2c6ad2ffbe4ad7451ef3c441_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, then the chain has distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0e718d53d84d216d708675ae608500ba_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"36\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cd47f9141b069463374b650a53568ac2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#43;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"40\" style=\"vertical-align: -2px;\"\/>. In other words, multiplying by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> <em>on the right<\/em> advances a distribution forward one step in time. This leads us to ask, what is the interpretation of multiplying a function by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> <em>on the left<\/em>. That is, is there an interpretation to the matrix\u2013vector product <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-90f43ef3ee809ed6a24af0b919f87dc4_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed, there is such an interpretation: The <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>th coordinate of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-90f43ef3ee809ed6a24af0b919f87dc4_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is the expectation of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8da7854ae3b107c721cd20d3bd238c3c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"41\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> conditional on the chain starting at <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a797e995d062d42682fab2b19f1592fd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"47\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>:<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 19px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d3abc35eacbcac194f948451539f7778_l3.png\" height=\"19\" width=\"211\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#40;&#80;&#102;&#41;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#93;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>Similarly,<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 19px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (3) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3aee313626d01d020c481e25567fe6c1_l3.png\" height=\"19\" width=\"222\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#40;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#102;&#41;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#93;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>There&#8217;s a straightforward proof of this fact. Let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-24c152416bee74257cd8ee293673fea1_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#100;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"19\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> denote a probability distribution which places 100% of the probability mass on the single site <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. The <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>th entry of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-bb1bd91c00d02ea1fab00fd61f6b4111_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"33\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 22px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e8c9b07d76e51bf1a6c2e582e9a239a7_l3.png\" height=\"22\" width=\"252\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#40;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#102;&#41;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#40;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#102;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#40;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#41;&#32;&#102;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>We know that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-977f4dc6985c423f208b1b83751ca89c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"21\" width=\"95\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> is the state of the Markov chain after <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> steps when initialized in the initial distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-58da9076c1278425e22f1f3f3241103e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"66\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>. Thus,<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-6eaa69991373f0004f94c020fd9d4b3c_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"422\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#40;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#102;&#41;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#102;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#61;&#105;&#93;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>This proves the formula (3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step 3: Computing the Covariance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With the help of the formula for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0784040ddb1633cbf4dcb3ecff2c46a8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#94;&#110;&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"33\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> and the spectral decomposition of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c23e757cb6bd08fe194e942085387dcd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"10\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>, we are ready to compute the covariances appearing in (1).Let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-031ac4a43a29d15ce3e8858140d8c31d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. Then<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 19px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (4) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0d2881b12745eed9e1a985eb8fefa650_l3.png\" height=\"19\" width=\"427\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#67;&#111;&#118;&#32;&#40;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#44;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#45;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s first compute <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c88debcfbbae714aadb6b34e5a6fd646_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"62\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-35ed314f41c6654ee1ef7f9631c96e4e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"64\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Since <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c86dc5efc4621599bd3e11866d859306_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#102;&#123;&#49;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is the vector\/function of all ones, we have<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 19px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fceebd56048f584bab0bf0ba12254652_l3.png\" height=\"19\" width=\"429\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#49;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#49;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#102;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#49;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#49;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>For the last equality, we use the spectral decomposition (2) along with the orthonormality of the eigenvectors <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-82870809241b864df9cdf48329af13b6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"17\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since we assume the chain is initialized in the stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-031ac4a43a29d15ce3e8858140d8c31d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>, it remains in stationarity at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-bb4d1c8591048f090204c791f37ff10c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"54\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>, so we have <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-703a86f4cdb9f7d354b2f7440826b5e9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"190\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, let&#8217;s compute <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-274aba259d8ec1c94a05588a5b6e3846_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"106\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Use the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Law_of_total_expectation\">law of total expectation<\/a> to write<br><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 109px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2e350d683f2a7cfff71028de3a45dbf8_l3.png\" height=\"109\" width=\"408\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#98;&#101;&#103;&#105;&#110;&#123;&#97;&#108;&#105;&#103;&#110;&#42;&#125;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#38;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#93;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#114;&#111;&#98;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#92;&#38;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#93;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#46;&#92;&#101;&#110;&#100;&#123;&#97;&#108;&#105;&#103;&#110;&#42;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><br>Now, invoke (3) and the definition of the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-inner product to write<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-10a769b03dee2b18b03876d46eaac7c7_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"365\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#40;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#102;&#41;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#102;&#44;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#102;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>Finally, using the spectral decomposition, we obtain<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 54px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-63bbc0c0f98d4c57de9a53a7162295f3_l3.png\" height=\"54\" width=\"600\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#44;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#44;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#118;&#97;&#114;&#112;&#104;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Combining this formula with our earlier observation that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0dee583b20d0c65301633cb289069661_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"190\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> and plugging into (4), we obtain<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (5) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-20b7af4f300077ae2d041dae30de529d_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"357\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#67;&#111;&#118;&#40;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#44;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#45;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#49;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>For the second equality, we use that the largest eigenvalue is <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0f4cffefda1ab1d17f3b979df3aa4991_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"50\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>, so <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4ae1e941c2190a2272521bfce62e306a_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#99;&#95;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> entirely drops out of the covariance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step 4: Wrapping it Up<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With the formula (5) for the covariance in hand, we are ready to evaluate the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> variance parameter in the Markov chain CLT. First, note that the variance is<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5f587d4d05f65d8d43d5824fd499d0d2_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"397\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#86;&#97;&#114;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#67;&#111;&#118;&#40;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#44;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#48;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#46;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>Therefore, combining this formula for the variance and the formula (5) for the covariance, we obtain<br><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 171px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-da05968b01086497f8e6e098e384b170_l3.png\" height=\"171\" width=\"321\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#98;&#101;&#103;&#105;&#110;&#123;&#97;&#108;&#105;&#103;&#110;&#42;&#125;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#38;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#86;&#97;&#114;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#93;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#50;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#102;&#116;&#121;&#32;&#92;&#67;&#111;&#118;&#40;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#41;&#44;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#92;&#38;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#50;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#102;&#116;&#121;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#44;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#92;&#92;&#38;&#61;&#32;&#45;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#50;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#61;&#48;&#125;&#94;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#102;&#116;&#121;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#110;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#46;&#92;&#101;&#110;&#100;&#123;&#97;&#108;&#105;&#103;&#110;&#42;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><br>Now, apply the formula for the sum of an infinite geometric series to obtain<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 50px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (6) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-61c9cb2ae48b8b474edd697e36a1e58c_l3.png\" height=\"50\" width=\"529\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#45;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#50;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#50;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#45;&#49;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#43;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion: Laziness is (Asymptotically) Bad for Averaging<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Before we get to the conclusions, let&#8217;s summarize where we are. We are seeking to use Markov chain average<p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 52px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-76330a2c8101f63831cdc0bcdd4e0cee_l3.png\" height=\"52\" width=\"144\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#78;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#125;&#123;&#78;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#48;&#125;&#94;&#123;&#78;&#45;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#41;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>as an approximation to the stationary mean <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c4b525a230a1b1912a79546d8b641e00_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#95;&#123;&#120;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"82\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. The Markov chain central limit theorem shows that, for a large number of steps <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, the error <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0f260b35378f3e3cb9ca1723ad1a0fe1_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#125;&#95;&#78;&#32;&#45;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#95;&#123;&#120;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#125;&#91;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"24\" width=\"125\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> is approximately normally distributioned with mean zero and variance <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-72885ae388ce31858e4263727c05846b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;&#47;&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"42\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. So to obtain accurate estimates, we want <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to be as small as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After some work, we were able to derive a formula (6) for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> in terms of the eigenvalues <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e98cb348171fd4d4fce41cca61ea766c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"79\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> of the transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. The formula for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> for the lazy chain is identical, except with each eigenvalue replaced by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d04d4224d8f568af4973ad9fef5a95f2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#47;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"76\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Thus, we have<br><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 109px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9401232cfda1b0fdd5a33993fb58b538_l3.png\" height=\"109\" width=\"179\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#98;&#101;&#103;&#105;&#110;&#123;&#97;&#108;&#105;&#103;&#110;&#42;&#125;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#110;&#111;&#110;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#32;&#38;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#49;&#43;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#92;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#32;&#38;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#50;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#51;&#43;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;&#46;&#92;&#101;&#110;&#100;&#123;&#97;&#108;&#105;&#103;&#110;&#42;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><br>From these formulas, it is clear that the lazy Markov chain has a larger <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> parameter and is thus less accurate than the non-lazy Markov chain, no matter what the eigenvalues are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To compare the non-lazy and lazy chains in another way, consider the plot below. The blue solid line shows the <em>amplification factor<\/em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-baf100b9fd545ee5e84bc621484c53b7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#49;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#41;&#47;&#40;&#49;&#43;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"127\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> of an eigenvalue <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2d04a02ef3c4041d8bb119d0c1fbeca5_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"15\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>, which represents amount by which the squared coefficient <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-08231bd26adc632a4cefae49c81d3794_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#99;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"15\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> is scaled by in <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. In the red-dashed line, we see the corresponding amplification factor <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-edd86b41080fe1703168b161e3c73eaf_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#49;&#45;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#41;&#47;&#40;&#49;&#43;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#95;&#105;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"166\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> for the corresponding eigenvalue <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0af204fc03112e0b6c295ae4ed60cae6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#108;&#97;&#122;&#121;&#125;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#40;&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#47;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"136\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> of the lazy chain. We see that at every <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c252618ceeb5905d69dcb7fffd94b651_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#109;&#98;&#100;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"10\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> value, the lazy chain has a higher amplification factor than the original chain.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/lazy-1024x768.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1612\" width=\"512\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/lazy-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/lazy-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/lazy-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/lazy.png 1120w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Remember that our original motivation for using the lazy chain was to remove the possibility of slow convergence of the chain to stationarity because of negative eigenvalues. But for the averaging application, negative eigenvalues are <em>great<\/em>. The process of Markov chain averaging shrinks the influence of negative eigenvalues on <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a2024a460bf317e5afc96726d79cb6ff_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, whereas positive eigenvalues are amplified. For the averaging application, negative eigenvalues for the chain are a feature, not a bug.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Moral of the Story<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Much of Markov chain theory, particularly in theoretical parts of computer science, mathematics, and machine learning, is centered around proving convergence to stationarity. Negative eigenvalues are a genuine obstruction to convergence to stationarity, and using the lazy chain in practice may be a sensible idea if one truly needs a sample from the stationary distribution in a given application.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But one-shot sampling is not the only or even the most common uses for Markov chains in computational practice. For other applications, such as averaging, the negative eigenvalues are actually a help. Using the lazy chain in practice for these problems would be a poor idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To me, the broader lesson in this story is that, as applied mathematicians, it can be inadvisable to become too fixated on one particular mathematical benchmark for designing and analyzing algorithms. Proving rapid convergence to stationarity with respect to the total variation distance is one nice way to analyze Markov chains. But it isn&#8217;t the only way, and chains not possessing this property because of large negative eigenvalues may actually be better in practice for some problems. Ultimately, applied mathematics should, at least in part, be guided by applications, and paying attention to how algorithms are used in practice should inform how we build and evaluate new ones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This post is part of a series, Markov Musings, about the mathematical analysis of Markov chains. See here for the first post in the series. In the previous post, we proved the following convergence results for a reversible Markov chain &nbsp; &nbsp; Here, denotes the distribution of the chain at time , denotes the stationary<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/2023\/08\/16\/markov-musings-4-should-you-be-lazy\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markov-musings"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1610"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1625,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1610\/revisions\/1625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}