{"id":1487,"date":"2023-05-30T17:29:10","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T17:29:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/?p=1487"},"modified":"2024-03-03T02:24:15","modified_gmt":"2024-03-03T02:24:15","slug":"big-ideas-in-applied-math-markov-chains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/30\/big-ideas-in-applied-math-markov-chains\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Ideas in Applied Math: Markov Chains"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this post, we&#8217;ll talk about <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Markov_chain\">Markov chains<\/a>, a useful and general model of a random system evolving in time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PageRank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To see how Markov chains can be useful in practice, we begin our discussion with the famous <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/PageRank\">PageRank problem<\/a>\ufffc. The goal is assign a numerical ranking to each website on the internet measuring how important it is. To do this, we form a mathematical model of an internet user randomly surfing the web. The importance of each website will be measured by the amount of times this user visits each page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The PageRank model of an internet user is as follows: Start the user at an arbitrary initial website <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1cb654a3bb05fcd9620c19c83d513488_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"17\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. At each step, the user makes one of two choices:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>With 85% probability, the user follows a random link on their current website.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With 15% probability, the user gets bored and jumps to a random website selected from the entire internet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As with any mathematical model, this is a riduculously oversimplified description of how a person would surf the web. However, like any good mathematical model, it is useful. Because of the way the model is designed, the user will spend more time on websites with many incoming links. Thus, websites with many incoming links will be rated as important, which seems like a sensible choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An example of the PageRank distribution for a small internet is shown below. As one would expect, the surfer spends a large part of their time on website B, which has many incoming links. Interestingly, the user spends almost as much of their time on website C, whose only links are to and from B. Under the PageRank model, a website is important if it is linked to by an important website, even if that is the only website linking to it.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"826\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/PageRank-1024x826.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1489\" style=\"width:512px;height:413px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/PageRank-1024x826.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/PageRank-300x242.png 300w, https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/PageRank-768x619.png 768w, https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/PageRank-1536x1238.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/PageRank.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markov Chains in General<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Having seen one Markov chain, the PageRank internet surfer, let&#8217;s talk about Markov chains in general. A (<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Markov_chain#Variations\">time-homogeneous<\/a>) Markov chain consists of two things: a set of states and probabilities for transitioning between states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Set of states.<\/strong> For this discussion, we limit ourselves to Markov chains which can only exist in finitely many different states. To simplify our discussion, label the possible states using numbers <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3ed47811429d3734c1a992c7857f32a4_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;&#44;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"79\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Transition probabilities.<\/strong> The definining property of a (time-homogeneous) Markov chain is that, at any point in time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, if the state is <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, the probability of moving to state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is a fixed number <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-887aa5b125901fd49a6520abe4306446_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"22\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>. In particular, the probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-887aa5b125901fd49a6520abe4306446_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"22\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> of moving from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> does not depend on the time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> or the past history of the chain before time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>; only the value of the chain at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> matters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Denote the state of the Markov chain at times <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c38f559192282cf54c105f722de17167_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#48;&#44;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"70\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e6632dc87d636e1ce65ab3aca652a412_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"97\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>. Note that the states <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e6632dc87d636e1ce65ab3aca652a412_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"97\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> are <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Random_variable\"><em>random<\/em><\/a> quantities. We can write the Markov chain property using the language of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Conditional_probability\">conditional probability<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 19px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d1fa5c29673402a40f530434ec99f998_l3.png\" height=\"19\" width=\"600\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#45;&#49;&#125;&#61;&#97;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#45;&#49;&#125;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#61;&#97;&#95;&#48;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This equation states that the probability that the system is in state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cd47f9141b069463374b650a53568ac2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#43;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"40\" style=\"vertical-align: -2px;\"\/> <em>given<\/em> the entire history of the system depends only on the value <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d8b6a6ba063bc62d8b202fe7b8336d1f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"49\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> of the chain at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. This probability is the transition probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-887aa5b125901fd49a6520abe4306446_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"22\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s see how the PageRank internet surfer fits into this model:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Set of states.<\/strong> Here, the set of states are the websites, which we label <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7bd5c25a3f9af71c923344084e8417b8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"62\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Transition probabilities.<\/strong> Consider two websites <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>. If <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> does not have a link to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>, then the only way of going from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is if the surfer randomly gets bored (probability 15%) and picks website <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> to visit at random (probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5ffaeb59142daea267b37aa54360080a_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;&#47;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"32\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>). Thus, <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 37px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-509e3cafba768e22fc8abbfe661d4a0d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;&#92;&#110;&#111;&#116;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#32;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"17\" width=\"42\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e9cb5a0e824c976c19d2d73c1f45714b_l3.png\" height=\"37\" width=\"86\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#48;&#46;&#49;&#53;&#125;&#123;&#109;&#125;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>Suppose instead that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> does link to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> has <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-08016e29093125cb6997fde58345ad0c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#100;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> outgoing links. Then, in addition to the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-15b093915ad30b567fed468dcb7dceca_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#48;&#46;&#49;&#53;&#47;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"56\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> probability computed before, user <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> has an 85% percent chance of following a link and a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-eefc75d9605314705e3e7ca2852e1798_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;&#47;&#100;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"31\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> chance of picking <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> as that link. Thus, <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 40px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e12a22fd546001fce88874ece57c8a98_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#32;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"42\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-51a6f3c00da58822f6465db8458a1f8c_l3.png\" height=\"40\" width=\"143\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#48;&#46;&#56;&#53;&#125;&#123;&#100;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#43;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#48;&#46;&#49;&#53;&#125;&#123;&#109;&#125;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markov Chains and Linear Algebra<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For a non-random process <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4239fa51204af78cea39a34188b619fb_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#121;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#121;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#121;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"93\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>, we can understand the processes evolution by determining its state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a6b6360e62c33a01591f6a84eda84529_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#121;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"17\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> at every point in time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Since Markov chains are random processes, it is not enough to track the state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-530ccd9ae0dfb9a2473662749810c94e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> of the process at every time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Rather, we must understand the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Probability_distribution#Discrete_probability_distribution\"><em>probability distribution<\/em><\/a> of the state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-530ccd9ae0dfb9a2473662749810c94e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> at every point in time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is customary in Markov chain theory to represent a probability distribution on the states <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2b64eb74aa7c11502189aac906c53b96_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#110;&#92;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"75\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> by a <em>row vector<\/em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-22d21d0650a832881c49e46c245ab008_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"19\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote \" data-mfn=\"1\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-1\">1<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-1\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"1\">To really emphasize that probability distributions are <em>row vectors<\/em>, we shall write them as transposes of column vectors. So <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7b919ac10b1842ce6c184b39f6af86a6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is a column vector but <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-22d21d0650a832881c49e46c245ab008_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"19\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> represents the probability distribution as is a row vector.<\/span> The <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>th entry <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-04f562916bf44242e3af44c095c135f7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> stores the probability that the system is in state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Naturally, as <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-22d21d0650a832881c49e46c245ab008_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"19\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is a probability distribution, its entries must be nonnegative (<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fb961013d7e98c485a3ed5ccd6e7c432_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#103;&#101;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"47\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> for every <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>) and add to one (<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ea61ab9489dd302c63cd402d21587f7e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"91\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ab52e835ed057d4b687e52bec09d8650_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#44;&#32;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"21\" width=\"140\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> denote the probability distributions of the states <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-713cf56b54dd481020c4089f55504007_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"71\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>. It is natural to ask: How are the distributions <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ab52e835ed057d4b687e52bec09d8650_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#44;&#32;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"21\" width=\"140\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> related to each other? Let&#8217;s answer this question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The probability that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4b4318d02e424b432ffebd5fc0d8ac00_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> is in state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>th entry of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e99c7615164178a0344f39744ec1bd07_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"44\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 28px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d8705a90b65f869a58cd432bbc884cfa_l3.png\" height=\"28\" width=\"167\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#92;&#125;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To compute this probability, we break into cases based on the value of the process at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>: either <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-af8b291db7af844beb12ceb13cba6f90_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"51\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> or <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75e1137f85a1a61711eae7eb77b3dc3e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"51\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> or \u2026 or <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ca8ae40bce8d9b3b6861fb8a6e4ed94d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"58\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>; only one of these cases can be true at once. When we have an &#8220;or&#8221; of random events and these events are <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Mutual_exclusivity#Probability\">mutually exclusive<\/a> (only can be true at once), then the probabilities add:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-448c23761c566dc3504d60b57f1ac8d1_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"377\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#44;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now we use some conditional probability. The probability that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9fddab7f705f8ceddf1ff56b2e8fefd5_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"17\" width=\"69\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d8b6a6ba063bc62d8b202fe7b8336d1f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"49\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> is the probability that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d8b6a6ba063bc62d8b202fe7b8336d1f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"49\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> times the probability that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9fddab7f705f8ceddf1ff56b2e8fefd5_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"17\" width=\"69\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> conditional on <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d8b6a6ba063bc62d8b202fe7b8336d1f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"49\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. That is,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 50px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9b27f4d81b8b51c36f578f7e00017d96_l3.png\" height=\"50\" width=\"547\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#44;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, we can simplify using our definitions. The probability that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d8b6a6ba063bc62d8b202fe7b8336d1f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"49\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> is just <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4637bce29a377ee484bea6816487d15a_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"24\" width=\"26\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> and the probability of moving from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-887aa5b125901fd49a6520abe4306446_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"22\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>. Thus, we conclude<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1a858376daf68ec5f2d816ef52e66997_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"155\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#95;&#106;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Phrased in the language of linear algebra, we&#8217;ve shown<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 36px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9ae710d7c26dc66ed497cc8faf34cab3_l3.png\" height=\"36\" width=\"369\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#32;&#92;&#113;&#117;&#97;&#100;&#32;&#92;&#116;&#101;&#120;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#111;&#114;&#32;&#97;&#110;&#121;&#32;&#125;&#32;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#48;&#44;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is, if we view the transition probabilities <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-887aa5b125901fd49a6520abe4306446_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"22\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> as comprising an <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5a322d087471e3199e2d9c9f1183245d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#109;&#92;&#116;&#105;&#109;&#101;&#115;&#32;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"9\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, then the distribution at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cd47f9141b069463374b650a53568ac2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#43;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"40\" style=\"vertical-align: -2px;\"\/> is obtained by multiplying the distribution at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> by transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. In particular, if we iterate this result, we obtain that the distribution at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is given by<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 42px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3fddd821b8cdb4b89262b0c72ea68e55_l3.png\" height=\"42\" width=\"620\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#45;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#091;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#45;&#50;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#093;&#80;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#45;&#50;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#50;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, the distribution at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is the distribution at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-54589d9b5610bf48dcf5a1b1f24a67b6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> multiplied by the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>th power of the transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Convergence to Stationarity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s go back to our web surfer again. At time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-54589d9b5610bf48dcf5a1b1f24a67b6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, we started our surfer at a particular website, say <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-27e3598fd2d4f0491067f1afaced92e9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"7\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. As such, the probability distribution<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote \" data-mfn=\"2\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-2\">2<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-2\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"2\">To keep notation clean going forward, we will drop the transposes off of probability distributions, except when working with them linear algebraically.<\/span> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1328c0d630dd173d409f4135b17663ee_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"25\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-54589d9b5610bf48dcf5a1b1f24a67b6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is concentrated just on website <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-27e3598fd2d4f0491067f1afaced92e9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"7\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, with no other website having any probability at all. In the first few steps, most of the probability will remain in the vacinity of website <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-27e3598fd2d4f0491067f1afaced92e9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"7\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, in the websites linked to by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-27e3598fd2d4f0491067f1afaced92e9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"7\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and the websites linked to by the websites linked to by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-27e3598fd2d4f0491067f1afaced92e9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"7\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and so on. However, as we run the chain long enough, the surfer will have time to widely across the web and the probability distribution will become less and less influenced by the chain&#8217;s starting location. This motivates the following definition:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Definition.<\/strong> A Markov chain satisfies the <strong>mixing property<\/strong> if the probability distributions <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-211b26ea203167033d31be881472d206_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"91\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> converge to a single fixed probability distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> regardless of how the chain is initialized (i.e., independent of the starting distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1328c0d630dd173d409f4135b17663ee_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"25\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> for a mixing Markov chain is known as a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Markov_chain#Stationary_distribution_relation_to_eigenvectors_and_simplices\"><em>stationary distribution<\/em><\/a> because it does not change under the action of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 17px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (St) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-daa1101ffcda26584d5f843c12765158_l3.png\" height=\"17\" width=\"84\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To see this, recall the recurrence<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 36px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-bcbc3e101491a613c1dcb40680a4ef3b_l3.png\" height=\"36\" width=\"180\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#44;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>take the limit as <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-76b87a2598bf6d51acebc46be5559ac3_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#102;&#116;&#121;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"10\" width=\"55\" style=\"vertical-align: -1px;\"\/>, and observe that both <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0e55d0b982fb1afdac47e13ed20d4c97_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"21\" width=\"70\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ce56199eb98014996a9a5b485d49d8e1_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#110;&#41;&#125;&#41;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"21\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> converge to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-59811bcae68b0cc77ddcba42fc0898d3_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the basic questions in the theory of Markov chains is finding conditions under which the mixing property (or suitable weaker versions of it) hold. To answer this question, we will need the following definition:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>A Markov chain is <a href=\"https:\/\/planetmath.org\/primitivematrix\"><strong>primitive<\/strong><\/a> if, after running the chain for some number <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> steps, the chain has positive probability of moving between any two states. That is, <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 19px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9796d227fdde3830779ea16f255b9b70_l3.png\" height=\"19\" width=\"667\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#116;&#101;&#120;&#116;&#123;&#84;&#104;&#101;&#114;&#101;&#32;&#101;&#120;&#105;&#115;&#116;&#115;&#32;&#36;&#110;&#36;&#32;&#115;&#117;&#99;&#104;&#32;&#116;&#104;&#97;&#116;&#44;&#32;&#102;&#111;&#114;&#32;&#97;&#110;&#121;&#32;&#36;&#105;&#44;&#106;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#109;&#36;&#44;&#32;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#113;&#117;&#97;&#100;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#40;&#80;&#94;&#110;&#41;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#62;&#32;&#48;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The fundamental theorem of Markov chains is that primitive chains satisfy the mixing property.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Theorem (fundamental theorem of Markov chains).<\/strong> Every primitive Markov chain is mixing. In particular, there exists one and only probability distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> satisfying the stationary property (St) and the probability distributions <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-68363aa3d2343d734a300d3391aea22f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#44;&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#49;&#41;&#125;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"91\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> converge to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> when initialized in any probability distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1328c0d630dd173d409f4135b17663ee_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"25\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>. Every entry of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is strictly positive.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s see an example of the fundamental theorem with the PageRank surfer. After <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ecb0fc73daf8e7ad7f97386e6ccb7000_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#61;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"42\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> step, there is at least a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-aac01844d263c1073df66777f1d4a44c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#48;&#46;&#49;&#53;&#47;&#109;&#32;&#62;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"89\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> chance of moving from any website <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to any other website <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>. Thus, the chain is primitive. Consequently, there is a unique stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, and the surfer will converge to this stationary distribution regardless of which website they start at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Going Backwards in Time<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Often, it is helpful to consider what would happen if we ran a Markov chain <em>backwards in time<\/em>. To see why this is an interesting idea, suppose you run website <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8daecae168d2c5e4e901c89360b57724_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#119;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and you&#8217;re interested in where your traffic is coming from. One way of achieving this would be to initialize the Markov chain at <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8daecae168d2c5e4e901c89360b57724_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#119;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and run the chain <em>backwards in time<\/em>. Rather than asking, &#8220;given I&#8217;m at <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8daecae168d2c5e4e901c89360b57724_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#119;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> now, where would a user go next?&#8221;, you ask &#8220;given that I&#8217;m at <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8daecae168d2c5e4e901c89360b57724_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#119;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> now, where do I expect to have come from?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s formalize this notion a little bit. Consider a primitive Markov chain <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e6632dc87d636e1ce65ab3aca652a412_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#120;&#95;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"97\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> with stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. We assume that we initialize this Markov chain <em>in the stationary distribution<\/em>. That is, we pick <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7500ea93ff2e72efe541fc9097118f95_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#114;&#104;&#111;&#94;&#123;&#40;&#48;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"62\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> as our initial distribution for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1cb654a3bb05fcd9620c19c83d513488_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"17\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.randomservices.org\/random\/markov\/TimeReversal.html\">time-reversed Markov chain<\/a> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-59ea8abaa0a8e5ed8d0a031ed597a090_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#121;&#95;&#48;&#44;&#121;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"68\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is defined as follows: The probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-54cc1a61d70523bf840dd649e41c5002_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#114;&#101;&#118;&#125;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"32\" style=\"vertical-align: -8px;\"\/> of moving from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> in the time-reversed Markov chain is the probability that I was at state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> one step previously given that I&#8217;m at state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> now:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 21px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-caeb5343a623f571314596e612b7315d_l3.png\" height=\"21\" width=\"363\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#121;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#121;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#114;&#101;&#118;&#125;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To get a nice closed form expression for the reversed transition probabilities <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-54cc1a61d70523bf840dd649e41c5002_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#114;&#101;&#118;&#125;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"32\" style=\"vertical-align: -8px;\"\/>, we can invoke <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Bayes%27_theorem\">Bayes&#8217; theorem<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 44px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (Rev) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1ffaf13a6eb4a6d8079f1ee0f7501d5d_l3.png\" height=\"44\" width=\"517\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#114;&#101;&#118;&#125;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#100;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#92;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#49;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#92;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#125;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The time-reversed Markov chain can be a strange beast. For the reversed PageRank surfer, for instance, follows links &#8220;upstream&#8221; traveling from the linked site to the linking site. As such, our hypothetical website owner could get a good sense of where their traffic is coming from by initializing the reversed chain <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-45bbd70e55adc0ea98c0264553488c7b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#121;&#95;&#48;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#119;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"53\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> at their website and following the chain one step back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reversible Markov Chains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We now have two different Markov chains: the original and its time-reversal. Call a Markov chain <em>reversible<\/em> if these processes are the same. That is, if the transition probabilities are the same:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 21px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d394cf7f8d6b8a6318c27c3e447403d_l3.png\" height=\"21\" width=\"303\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#80;&#94;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#114;&#101;&#118;&#125;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#113;&#117;&#97;&#100;&#32;&#92;&#116;&#101;&#120;&#116;&#123;&#102;&#111;&#114;&#32;&#101;&#118;&#101;&#114;&#121;&#32;&#125;&#32;&#105;&#44;&#106;&#61;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#109;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using our formula (Rev) for the reversed transition probability, the reversibility condition can be written more concisely as<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 17px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d6dade4e26238f165b12b7d2891d3a95_l3.png\" height=\"17\" width=\"107\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This condition is referred to as <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Detailed_balance#Reversible_Markov_chains\"><em>detailed balance<\/em><\/a>.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote \" data-mfn=\"3\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-3\">3<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-3\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"3\">There is an abstruse\u2014but useful\u2014way of reformulating the detailed balance condition. Think of a vector <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4a04226b1526f191dea6cf5d3d45ca48_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;&#32;&#92;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#82;&#125;&#94;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"57\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> as defining a function on the set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0046b7b5663e39a86facf699ab52b12d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#109;&#92;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"80\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7f8740d0e892de74d7794d9db88ab550_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#102;&#32;&#58;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#112;&#115;&#116;&#111;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#111;&#108;&#111;&#110;&#101;&#113;&#113;&#32;&#102;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"131\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Letting <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b312d649591164b7149ed0756f694a76_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"10\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> denote a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Random_variable\">random variable<\/a> drawn from the stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d73af9784924ed3d99472e826c27e465_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"45\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, we can define a non-standard <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Inner_product_space\">inner product<\/a> on <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-560f21b862b06dc4009a952622be24c8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#82;&#125;&#94;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"25\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>: <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1c871929113a513c08da0e9fa24a8043_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#102;&#44;&#32;&#103;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#111;&#108;&#111;&#110;&#101;&#113;&#113;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#69;&#125;&#091;&#102;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#32;&#103;&#40;&#120;&#41;&#093;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#102;&#40;&#105;&#41;&#103;&#40;&#105;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"308\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Then the Markov chain is reversible if and only if detailed balance holds if and only if <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Self-adjoint_operator\">self-adjoint operator<\/a> on <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-560f21b862b06dc4009a952622be24c8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#82;&#125;&#94;&#109;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"25\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> when equipped with the non-standard inner product <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-42f3b33655a6a604f0a755aa476f80b6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#44;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#95;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"39\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. This more abstract characterization has useful consequences. For instance, by the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Spectral_theorem\">spectral theorem<\/a>, the transition matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> of a reversible Markov chain has real eigenvalues and supports a basis of orthonormal eigenvectors (in the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-42f3b33655a6a604f0a755aa476f80b6_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#108;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#44;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#92;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#108;&#101;&#95;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"39\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> inner product).<\/span> In words, it states that a Markov chain is reversible if, when initialized in the stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, the flow of probability mass from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> (that is, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7d597ffe6110af9da2e9f00f0586d794_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"38\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>) is equal to the flow of probability mass from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> (that is, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-10171b8b651ba59bdeb4cb36e9275cec_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"40\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many interesting Markov chains are reversible. One class of examples are Markov chain models of physical and chemical processes. Since physical laws like classical and quantum mechanics are reversible under time, so too should we expect Markov chain models built from theories to be reversible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not every interesting Markov chain is reversible, however. Indeed, except in special cases, the PageRank Markov chain is not reversible. If <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> links to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> but. <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> does not link to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, then the flow of mass from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> will be higher than the flow from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before moving on, we note one useful fact about reversible Markov chains. Suppose a reversible, primitive Markov chain satisfies the detailed balance condition with a probability distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-19d07cd90acd2a7550c27d62db5b6e5f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 17px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f1ef7062af77b1ad2efc526c3db8a63b_l3.png\" height=\"17\" width=\"107\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2e343903ba15283a9258db988cc4ab22_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"45\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is the stationary distribution of this chain. To see why, we check the stationarity condition <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ccf58d91e41de2fe7472653b25a6a37e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"81\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Indeed, for every <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 49px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-81a7b02ba8de821bb56ecee978ec346d_l3.png\" height=\"49\" width=\"284\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#40;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#41;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#95;&#106;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second equality is detailed balance and the third equality is just the condition that the sum of the transition probabilities from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> to each <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is one. Thus, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ccf58d91e41de2fe7472653b25a6a37e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;&#32;&#80;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#94;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#112;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"81\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-19d07cd90acd2a7550c27d62db5b6e5f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is a stationary distribution for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. But a primitive chain has only one stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, so <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2e343903ba15283a9258db988cc4ab22_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"45\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Markov Chains as Algorithms<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markov chains are an amazingly flexible tool. One use of Markov chains is more scientific: Given a system in the real world, we can model it by a Markov chain. By simulating the chain or by studying its mathematical properties, we can hope to learn about the system we&#8217;ve modeled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another use of Markov chains is <em>algorithmic<\/em>. Rather than thinking of the Markov chain as modeling some real-world process, we instead <em>design<\/em> the Markov chain to serve a computationally useful end. The PageRank surfer is one example. We wanted to rank the importance of websites, so we designed a Markov chain to achieve this task.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One task we can use Markov chains to solve are sampling problems. Suppose we have a complicated probability distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, and we want a random sample from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>\u2014that is, a random quantity <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7506eeeff09aad3bcf6b7259302df451_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#121;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> such that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-494f94290d147d15dd3cec966dae6625_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#121;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;&#32;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"106\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> for every <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. One way to achieve this goal is to design a primitive Markov chain with stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Then, we run the chain for a large number of steps <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and use <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-530ccd9ae0dfb9a2473662749810c94e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> as an approximate sample from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To design a Markov chain with stationary distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, it is sufficient to generate transition probabilities <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> such that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e0b7f55ebbc9bb715e8b20ffdc459df7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> satisfy the detailed balance condition. Then, we are guaranteed that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is a stationary distribution for the chain. (We also should check the primitiveness condition, but this is often straightforward.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is an effective way of building a Markov chain to sample from a distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Suppose that the chain is in state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> at time <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-75a5652acadcd645b180a972b75a9d09_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d8b6a6ba063bc62d8b202fe7b8336d1f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"49\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. To choose the next state, we begin by sampling <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> from a <em>proposal distribution<\/em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3396fa383714d552f2493eb05c1d04eb_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. The proposal distribution <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3396fa383714d552f2493eb05c1d04eb_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> can be almost anything we like, as long as it satisfies three conditions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Probability distribution.<\/strong> For every <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, the transition probabilitie <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9fd41a4b46b3d8002b9078cea4c8e8a9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> add to one: <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a625898691dbd883a1c4d15dd728aee7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#61;&#49;&#125;&#94;&#109;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"22\" width=\"100\" style=\"vertical-align: -8px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bidirectional.<\/strong> If <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0cc4390244f841eecb538012a6cefade_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#62;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"55\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>, then <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d0637a9d23f302e96e789aa85df887b4_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#62;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"55\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Primitive.<\/strong> The transition probabilities <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3396fa383714d552f2493eb05c1d04eb_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> form a primitive Markov chain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to sample from the correct distribution, we can&#8217;t just accept every proposal. Rather, given the proposal <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e12a22fd546001fce88874ece57c8a98_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;&#92;&#116;&#111;&#32;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"42\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>, we accept with probability<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 44px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fb8ef7791b1d955015f1300e0eddfb8c_l3.png\" height=\"44\" width=\"126\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#49;&#32;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we accept the proposal, the next state of our chain is <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9fddab7f705f8ceddf1ff56b2e8fefd5_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"17\" width=\"69\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Otherwise, we stay where we are <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-33195f797685c6bd51849930caedf4f4_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"17\" width=\"67\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. This Markov chain is known as a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Metropolis\u2013Hastings_algorithm\"><em>Metropolis\u2013Hastings sampler<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For clarity, we list the steps of the Metropolis\u2013Hastings sampler explicitly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Initialize the chain in any state <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1cb654a3bb05fcd9620c19c83d513488_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"17\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> and set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ed980e2ad580d3f0e6a0c8a55afde372_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"48\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Draw a proposal <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c6cc1bb3e12ae51587e4da379b7b59de_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#39;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> with from the proposal distribution, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5d3aedc7236286c3fef3a3c38ad2f96e_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#104;&#98;&#98;&#123;&#80;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#120;&#39;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;&#32;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#120;&#95;&#110;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"20\" width=\"131\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Compute the acceptance probability <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 44px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e34abfe410068f7516cd1c5e50100c3c_l3.png\" height=\"44\" width=\"184\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#112;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#97;&#99;&#99;&#125;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#49;&#32;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4b00216e07b403d21069efc6270495a3_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#112;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#97;&#99;&#99;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"29\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>, set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d73c60c994d5d897f94394027c82d29_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#120;&#39;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"79\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Otherwise, set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-529432eaf9ee51b0f75b8455b2c51a2a_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#120;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#120;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"83\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2398b957f67b93bfe513acbea140eba9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#110;&#43;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"80\" style=\"vertical-align: -2px;\"\/> and go back to step 2.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>To check that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is a stationary distribution of the Metropolis\u2013Hastings distribution, all we need to do is check detailed balance. Note that the probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-887aa5b125901fd49a6520abe4306446_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"22\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> of transitioning from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-08a4473998b8d131e2872754469c4498_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;&#92;&#110;&#101;&#32;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"17\" width=\"39\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> under the Metropolis\u2013Hastings sampler is the proposal probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9fd41a4b46b3d8002b9078cea4c8e8a9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"21\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> <em>times<\/em> the acceptance probability:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 44px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8c98e72078f3de5c0de43a1683f5d406_l3.png\" height=\"44\" width=\"208\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#49;&#32;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Detailed balance is confirmed by a short computation<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote \" data-mfn=\"4\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-4\">4<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-4\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"4\">Note that the detailed balance condition for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cfb2b28a640add09ae818ffd8d51500f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"38\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is always satisfied for any Markov chain <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cfbfa930eea50b1d7d9496ccaa07fb10_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#105;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"97\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>.<\/span>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 44px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9ec53c4f48f0cc7bb8cc1d0cd58750f1_l3.png\" height=\"44\" width=\"459\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#49;&#32;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#105;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;&#32;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#106;&#32;&#80;&#95;&#123;&#106;&#105;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus the Metropolis\u2013Hastings sampler has <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d9e32b5e4babc6802251992b8a21a0b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"8\" width=\"11\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> as stationary distribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Determinatal Point Processes: Diverse Items from a Collection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The uses of Markov chains in science, engineering, math, computer science, and machine learning are vast. I wanted to wrap up with one application that I find particularly neat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suppose I run a bakery and I sell <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> different baked goods. I want to pick out <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> special items for a display window to lure customers into my store. As a first approach, I might pick my top-<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> selling items for the window. But I realize that there&#8217;s a problem. All of my top sellers are muffins, so all of the items in my display window are muffins. My display window is doing a good job luring in muffin-lovers, but a bad job of enticing lovers of other baked goods. In addition to rating the popularity of each item, I should also promote <em>diversity<\/em> in the items I select for my shop window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s a creative solution to my display case problems using linear algebra. Suppose that, rather than just looking at a list of the sales of each item, I define a <em>matrix<\/em> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f4f587954b361e7d78940f65b8d70d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> for my baked goods. In the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f40ce342f4b40c852a7fedd867519b07_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>th entry <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-56b10a586ad16ed119f469b38734797c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#105;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"23\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> of my matrix, I write the number of sales for baked good <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. I populate the off-diagonal entries <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0ea4c5481c955b7f77b1232cda622bb9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> of my matrix with a measure of similarity between items <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote \" data-mfn=\"5\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-5\">5<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-5\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"5\">There are many ways of defining such a similarity matrix. Here is one way. Let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8d107773b50d636136d234e93184fe6d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#122;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#122;&#95;&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"75\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> be the number ordered for each bakery item by a random customer. Set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-aaf296b0ba4c1beb8df992e8b77c1294_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#83;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to be the <em>correlation matrix<\/em> of the random variables <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8d107773b50d636136d234e93184fe6d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#122;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#122;&#95;&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"75\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>, with <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-bed9c3ed76037b90944a0b749a2189dc_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#83;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> being the correlation between the random variables <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-589a6287d5cdd791403c91a35af2d6de_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#122;&#95;&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-1fbab2977806a0f13c3f41fd8be7ab45_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#122;&#95;&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"14\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/>. The matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-aaf296b0ba4c1beb8df992e8b77c1294_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#83;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> has all ones on its diagonal. The off-diagonal entries <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-bed9c3ed76037b90944a0b749a2189dc_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#83;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> measure the amount that items <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> tend to be purchased together. Let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ab69a4a7716bbf890e5f604a06fd1f13_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#68;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"15\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> be a diagonal matrix where <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-10140e8a5797a5100af5d88164570bb1_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#68;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#105;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"25\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> is the total sales of item <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-3a517308c85e8dfc0825022582a8032f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#111;&#108;&#111;&#110;&#101;&#113;&#113;&#32;&#68;&#94;&#123;&#49;&#47;&#50;&#125;&#92;&#83;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#32;&#68;&#94;&#123;&#49;&#47;&#50;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"126\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. By scaling <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-aaf296b0ba4c1beb8df992e8b77c1294_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#83;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> by the diagonal matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ab69a4a7716bbf890e5f604a06fd1f13_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#68;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"15\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, the diagonal entries of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f4f587954b361e7d78940f65b8d70d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> represent the popularity of each item, whereass the off-diagonal entries still represent correlations, now scaled by popularity.<\/span> So if <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> are both muffins, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0ea4c5481c955b7f77b1232cda622bb9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> will be large. But if <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4015d3bcae440238eb2e7a73e66bae43_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#105;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"6\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is a muffin and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-fe087f8cefab0bcb3270609914ada26c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#106;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> is a cookie, then <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0ea4c5481c955b7f77b1232cda622bb9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#123;&#105;&#106;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -6px;\"\/> will be small. For mathematical reasons, we require <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f4f587954b361e7d78940f65b8d70d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> to be <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Symmetric_matrix\">symmetric<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Definite_matrix\">positive definite<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To populate my display case, I choose a random subset of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> items from my full menu of size <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> according to the following strange probability distribution: The probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-906f398edce2c629c35cd6f9bc38941f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#83;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"19\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> of picking items <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-6c63be90efe40338464315a33938df3c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#115;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#115;&#95;&#107;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#98;&#115;&#101;&#116;&#101;&#113;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#78;&#92;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"230\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> is proportional to the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Determinant\"><em>determinant<\/em><\/a> of the submatrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5c101d8c673c600ceec573773ca7a3f2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#40;&#83;&#44;&#83;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"57\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. More specifically,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 43px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-26714c8980fc33f439de8cf1e5a692eb_l3.png\" height=\"43\" width=\"291\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#83;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#83;&#44;&#83;&#41;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#115;&#117;&#109;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#116;&#101;&#120;&#116;&#123;&#97;&#108;&#108;&#32;&#115;&#117;&#98;&#115;&#101;&#116;&#115;&#32;&#36;&#84;&#36;&#32;&#111;&#102;&#32;&#115;&#105;&#122;&#101;&#32;&#36;&#107;&#36;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#84;&#44;&#84;&#41;&#125;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here, we let <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5c101d8c673c600ceec573773ca7a3f2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#40;&#83;&#44;&#83;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"57\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> denote the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-979373ae59303770cd68d74797bc73f9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;&#92;&#116;&#105;&#109;&#101;&#115;&#32;&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"40\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> submatrix of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f4f587954b361e7d78940f65b8d70d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> consisting of the entries appearing in rows and columns <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-dce009c30c096fdcc766edae34514199_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#115;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#115;&#95;&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"70\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>. Such a random subset is known as a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/><em><a href=\"https:\/\/icml.cc\/2011\/papers\/611_icmlpaper.pdf\">-determinantal point process<\/a><\/em> (<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP). (See <a href=\"http:\/\/www.alexkulesza.com\/pubs\/dpps_fnt12.pdf\">this survey for more about DPPs<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To see why this makes any sense, let&#8217;s consider a simple example of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5cfcb29a74cd2bbe82f69289fe268248_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#51;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"49\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> items and a display case of size <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8f6ee5dfeb2a38925ef98ca56b04a5cb_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"41\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Suppose I have three items: a pumpkin muffin, a chocolate chip muffin, and an oatmeal raisin cookies. Say the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f4f587954b361e7d78940f65b8d70d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> matrix looks like<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 64px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b8bb20f6bff68d835397eabaf8a1cdc0_l3.png\" height=\"64\" width=\"144\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#65;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#98;&#101;&#103;&#105;&#110;&#123;&#98;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#114;&#105;&#120;&#125;&#32;&#49;&#48;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#57;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#48;&#32;&#92;&#92;&#32;&#57;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#49;&#48;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#48;&#32;&#92;&#92;&#32;&#48;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#48;&#32;&#38;&#32;&#53;&#32;&#92;&#101;&#110;&#100;&#123;&#98;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#114;&#105;&#120;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see that both muffins are equally popular <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-8f59ef92e15c5972c782b3e7cfdc8e84_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#123;&#49;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#65;&#95;&#123;&#50;&#50;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"121\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> and much more popular than the cookie <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7db2ed36ddf881544d7887a6144b043a_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;&#95;&#123;&#51;&#51;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#53;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"16\" width=\"60\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. However, the two muffins are similar to each other and thus the corresponding submatrix has small determinant<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 42px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7f74f9426bb0c808b9e4384a0a2a6c2d_l3.png\" height=\"42\" width=\"317\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#92;&#125;&#44;&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#50;&#92;&#125;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#92;&#116;&#119;&#111;&#98;&#121;&#116;&#119;&#111;&#123;&#49;&#48;&#125;&#123;&#57;&#125;&#123;&#57;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#48;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;&#57;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By contrast, if the cookie is disimilar to each muffin and the determinant is higher<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 42px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-812d8318cba1d4a937e92858658ff7e8_l3.png\" height=\"42\" width=\"481\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#51;&#92;&#125;&#44;&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#51;&#92;&#125;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#92;&#123;&#50;&#44;&#51;&#92;&#125;&#44;&#92;&#123;&#50;&#44;&#51;&#92;&#125;&#41;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#92;&#116;&#119;&#111;&#98;&#121;&#116;&#119;&#111;&#123;&#49;&#48;&#125;&#123;&#48;&#125;&#123;&#48;&#125;&#123;&#53;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#53;&#48;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, even though the muffins are more popular overall, choosing our display case from a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b5fed14f2144ce9f7a2e7c6c1a9858d9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"8\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP, we have a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2cbca331102ca9b670c9cffe84d20db3_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#40;&#53;&#48;&#43;&#53;&#48;&#41;&#32;&#47;&#32;&#40;&#53;&#48;&#43;&#53;&#48;&#43;&#49;&#57;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#97;&#112;&#112;&#114;&#111;&#120;&#32;&#56;&#52;&#92;&#37;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"245\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> chance of choosing a muffin and a cookie for our display case. It is for this reason that we can say that a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP preferentially selects for diverse items.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is sampling from a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP the best way of picking <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> items for my display case? How does it compare to other possible methods?<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote \" data-mfn=\"6\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-6\">6<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-6\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"6\">Another method I&#8217;m partial to for this task is randomly pivoted Cholesky sampling, which is computationally cheaper than <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP sampling even with the Markov chain sampling approach to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP sampling that we will discuss shortly.<\/span> These are interesting questions for another time. For now, let us focus our attention on a different question: How would you sample from a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Determinantal Point Process by Markov Chains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sampling from a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP is a hard computational problem. Indeed, there are <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-6d77b9f7d21c70b79af73598da4df122_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#123;&#78;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#104;&#111;&#111;&#115;&#101;&#32;&#107;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"24\" width=\"24\" style=\"vertical-align: -7px;\"\/> possible <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-element subspaces of a set of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> items. The number of possibilities gets large fast. If I have <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a293fa011665ca71c8331d0e82501b95_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;&#48;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"67\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> items and want to pick <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-e8833bf47fc89e0b7239ce856af36ba0_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"51\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> of them, there are already over 10 trillion possible combinations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markov chains offer one compelling way of sampling a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP. First, we need a proposal distribution. Let&#8217;s choose the simplest one we can think of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Proposal for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP sampling.<\/strong> Suppose our current set of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> items is <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0156fa337c22e7e307bf93c47439dba9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#115;&#95;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#115;&#95;&#107;&#92;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"124\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. To generate a proposal, choose a uniformly random element <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d17e838166e665166849ca89505aa5d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#111;&#108;&#100;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"27\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> out of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b89471a11dd7fd85184a38ddb3ea9145_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and a uniformly random element <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7b39273e8000381be6a1e7fd2ac51cde_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#110;&#101;&#119;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"32\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> out of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b7fba1162d84148c59ee0a717f0ba826_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#78;&#92;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"80\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> without <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b89471a11dd7fd85184a38ddb3ea9145_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>. Propose <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0d13d0d740e93607a5050e98fc8b5f2f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#39;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> obtained from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b89471a11dd7fd85184a38ddb3ea9145_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> by replacing <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d17e838166e665166849ca89505aa5d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#111;&#108;&#100;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"27\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> with <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7b39273e8000381be6a1e7fd2ac51cde_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#110;&#101;&#119;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"32\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> (i.e., <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-cd7a66796e0ad6ee201ef845f709948c_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#39;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#83;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#110;&#101;&#119;&#125;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#101;&#116;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#117;&#115;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#111;&#108;&#100;&#125;&#92;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"183\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, we need to compute the Metropolis\u2013Hastings acceptance probability<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 43px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5ff5280a20cfddd08b7917152edbfb68_l3.png\" height=\"43\" width=\"198\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#112;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#97;&#99;&#99;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#49;&#32;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#39;&#125;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#39;&#83;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#125;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#83;&#39;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b89471a11dd7fd85184a38ddb3ea9145_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0d13d0d740e93607a5050e98fc8b5f2f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#39;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> which differ only by the addition of one element and the removal of another, the proposal probabilities <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-29448f917206ddb54b4e255ef5d1c2de_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#39;&#83;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"33\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> and <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d6c999d62074d813cc18641b02bd9cdc_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#83;&#39;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"33\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> are both equal to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-de7b70ab3c8e778fe7efec47ee5bf4b7_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#49;&#47;&#40;&#107;&#78;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"56\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>, <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-87a90ab5d2202bd5ac9836351699d88b_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#39;&#83;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#83;&#39;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#49;&#47;&#40;&#107;&#78;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"171\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Using the formula for the probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-906f398edce2c629c35cd6f9bc38941f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#83;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"19\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> of drawing <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b89471a11dd7fd85184a38ddb3ea9145_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"12\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> from a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP, we compute that<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 43px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-26f4fdbc4d7624e49904e22703e8aaa7_l3.png\" height=\"43\" width=\"153\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#39;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#83;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#83;&#39;&#44;&#83;&#39;&#41;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#83;&#44;&#83;&#41;&#125;&#46;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, the Metropolis\u2013Hastings acceptance probability is just a ratio of determinants:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 43px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> (Acc) <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-16c835576499e7fb3e6cf2c219732873_l3.png\" height=\"43\" width=\"397\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#091;&#112;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#97;&#99;&#99;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#49;&#32;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#39;&#125;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#39;&#83;&#125;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#112;&#105;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#125;&#32;&#84;&#95;&#123;&#83;&#83;&#39;&#125;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#92;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#108;&#101;&#102;&#116;&#92;&#123;&#32;&#49;&#44;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#83;&#39;&#44;&#83;&#39;&#41;&#125;&#123;&#92;&#100;&#101;&#116;&#32;&#65;&#40;&#83;&#44;&#83;&#41;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#114;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#92;&#125;&#46;&#32;&#92;&#093;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And we&#8217;re done. Let&#8217;s summarize our sampling algorithm:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Choose an initial set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ea31752cfe3c99082020ae6b0d058de0_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#95;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> arbitrarily and set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ed980e2ad580d3f0e6a0c8a55afde372_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"48\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Draw <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4d17e838166e665166849ca89505aa5d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#111;&#108;&#100;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"27\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> uniformly at random from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-9e877a9154a0560a3fe133543a35c64f_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"19\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Draw <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-7b39273e8000381be6a1e7fd2ac51cde_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#110;&#101;&#119;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"11\" width=\"32\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> uniformly at random from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-0c26ef010edf1f911f6e14b1ba05bfe2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#123;&#49;&#44;&#92;&#108;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#115;&#44;&#78;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#101;&#116;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#117;&#115;&#32;&#83;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"117\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-6c77de5433ad59e36d493d8319b541e4_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#39;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#83;&#95;&#110;&#32;&#92;&#99;&#117;&#112;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#110;&#101;&#119;&#125;&#92;&#125;&#32;&#92;&#115;&#101;&#116;&#109;&#105;&#110;&#117;&#115;&#32;&#92;&#123;&#115;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#111;&#108;&#100;&#125;&#92;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"197\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With probability <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-4b00216e07b403d21069efc6270495a3_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#112;&#95;&#123;&#92;&#114;&#109;&#32;&#97;&#99;&#99;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"29\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/> defined in (Acc), accept and set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-55c60bfea966e689ed67a295b47961e8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#83;&#39;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"82\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>. Otherwise, set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-788273832141809178c2f7c090ec7f51_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#95;&#123;&#110;&#43;&#49;&#125;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#83;&#95;&#110;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"17\" width=\"85\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-2398b957f67b93bfe513acbea140eba9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#110;&#32;&#58;&#61;&#32;&#110;&#43;&#49;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"14\" width=\"80\" style=\"vertical-align: -2px;\"\/> and go to step 2.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a remarkably simple algorithm to sample from a complicated distribution. And its fairly efficient as well. <a href=\"http:\/\/proceedings.mlr.press\/v49\/anari16.html\">Analysis by Anari, Oveis Gharan, and Rezaei<\/a> shows that, when you pick a good enough initial set <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ea31752cfe3c99082020ae6b0d058de0_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#95;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"18\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>, this sampling algorithm produces approximate samples from a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP in roughly <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-de73e1c1366f7fc56ea772b226ca59cd_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;&#107;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"33\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> steps.<sup class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote \" data-mfn=\"7\" data-mfn-post-scope=\"000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487\"><a href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  role=\"button\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-describedby=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-7\">7<\/a><\/sup><span id=\"mfn-content-000000000000057f0000000000000000_1487-7\" role=\"tooltip\" class=\"modern-footnotes-footnote__note\" tabindex=\"0\" data-mfn=\"7\">They actually use a slight variant of this algorithm where the acceptance probabilities (Acc) are reduced by a factor of two. Observe that this still has the correct stationary distribution because detailed balance continues to hold. The extra factor is introduced to ensure that the Markov chain is primitive.<\/span> Remarkably, if <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> is much smaller than <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-ec1be7928bcd319c17c1931fbb8059ac_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"16\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>, this Markov chain-based algorithm samples from a <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-f65286b751f121928913d4aa91d94ee9_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#107;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"12\" width=\"9\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>-DPP without even looking at all <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-d29e4554584afc4c0a6a384cedf37df8_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#78;&#94;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"23\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/> entries of the matrix <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-11f4f587954b361e7d78940f65b8d70d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#65;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"13\" width=\"13\" style=\"vertical-align: 0px;\"\/>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Upshot.<\/strong> Markov chains are a simple and general model for a state evolving randomly in time. Under mild conditions, Markov chains converge to a stationary distribution: In the limit of a large number of steps, the state of the system become randomly distributed in a way independent of how it was initialized. We can use Markov chains as algorithms to approximately sample from challenging distributions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this post, we&#8217;ll talk about Markov chains, a useful and general model of a random system evolving in time. PageRank To see how Markov chains can be useful in practice, we begin our discussion with the famous PageRank problem\ufffc. The goal is assign a numerical ranking to each website on the internet measuring how<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/2023\/05\/30\/big-ideas-in-applied-math-markov-chains\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-big-ideas-in-applied-math"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1487"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1810,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1487\/revisions\/1810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ethanepperly.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}